NAR’s Forecast: Home Sales Headed for a 14% Increase

The latest forecast from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicts existing home sales in the U.S. will increase by about 14% in 2026, driven by improving economic fundamentals and a slight easing of mortgage rates. Home prices are expected to continue rising nationally around 4% next year, after an estimated 3% rise by the end of this year. Additional predictions:

I’ll be putting together a full list of forecasts as we get closer to the end of the year, but here’s my early read: Much of NAR’s outlook for a stronger 2026 seems tied to the same theme we’ve been talking about all year: inventory challenges aren’t going away. Supply remains tight, and demand continues to build. You can see it clearly in the 31% year-over-year jump in mortgage applications. The market itself is still pretty split, with luxury sales showing more strength, while the affordable home market struggles under heavy inventory shortages.