Westchester County NY Real Estate Blog - Mortgage Rates

NAR Chief Economist Forecasts 9% Bump in Home Sales

NAR Chief Economist Forecasts 9% Bump in Home Sales

At the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) NXT conference, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projected a 9% increase in existing home sales for 2025, followed by a 13% rise in 2026. He also anticipates new home sales to grow by 11% in 2025 and 8% in 2026. Yun attributes these forecasts to expected stabilization of mortgage rates around 6%, ongoing job market growth, and an increase in housing inventory compared to the past five years. Additional points:

• Household equity at a record high

• Expect 6 to 8 interest rate cuts

• Mortgage rates to stabilize between 5.5% and 6.5%

Ralph’s Take

While Yun’s forecasts are optimistic, I hold a little…

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Could This “Magic Rate” Unlock the Market?

Could This “Magic Rate” Unlock the Market?

According to a recent analysis by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), there may be a "magic" mortgage rate that could spark renewed activity in the housing market. For 12 consecutive years, mortgage rates remained below 5%, enabling many homeowners to lock in favorable terms. Currently, 86% of mortgage holders have rates under 6%. JBREC's survey suggests that the 5.5% mortgage rate represents the tipping point that could release the “ lock in effect ”. Additional findings:

• 72% of buyers would not accept a rate above 5.5%

• 22% of buyers would accept a rate higher than 6%

• 66% of consumers believe a “normal” rate is below 5.5%

• 88% of consumers believe…

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Mortgage Rates Rise Despite Fed Cuts

Mortgage Rates Rise Despite Fed Cuts

While the Federal Reserve's decisions influence the economy, their impact on long-term rates like mortgages is indirect. Following the Fed's 0.50% rate cut on September 18th, mortgage rates began to increase slightly. This week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rate jumped to 6.64%, the largest one-week increase since April. Here’s why:

• Economic Data: Better than expected housing starts, retail sales, labor figures, and the September jobs report exceeded expectations.

• Rise in Treasury Yields: Mortgage rates are closely tied to long-term U.S. Treasury yields. As they have risen, so have mortgage rates.

• Investor Concerns: Worries about inflation and monetary policy shifts…

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Is Now the Best Time to Buy in 2024?

Is Now the Best Time to Buy in 2024?

Fall is typically a quiet period for real estate but as we transition into this fall, we could see a shift in the market. Historically, home tours peak in the spring, but with interest rates set to drop in the coming months, experts are predicting we might see buyers and sellers act sooner. This year could bring a unique inversion with buyers actively shopping as mortgage rates hit their lowest levels since May 2023.

• The average 30-year mortgage rate hit a 52-week low today, at 6.27%.

• Buyer traffic is down -1.3% compared to the first week of the year, according to ShowingTime®.

• New Inventory: 103 single-family homes have been listed in Westchester since 9/1. In…

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Today’s rate is a new 52 week low, at 6.27%.

Mortgage Watch 

Since reaching a high of 7.52% in April, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate has continued to drop. Today’s rate is a new 52-week low, at 6.27%.

Source: Mortgage News Daily

> The rate you may be eligible for can vary greatly from the daily average published via Mortgage News Daily. I use this figure as a proxy for how the mortgage market is shifting.

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The "Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect”

The "Mortgage Rate Lock-In Effect”

A recent Redfin article delved into the "mortgage rate lock-in effect”, where homeowners are reluctant to sell their homes due to their advantageous low mortgage rates - which is intensifying the housing shortage. As we mentioned in July, 86% of mortgages have an interest rate below 6%, but that has been gradually decreasing over the past two years (93% in 2022, 91% in 2023, 86% this year).

Current percentage of mortgages with:

• Rates Below 6%: 85.7% (down from 92.8% in 2022)

• Rates Below 5%: 76.1% (down from 85.6% in 2022) 

• Rates Below 4%: 57.4% (down from 65.3% in 2022) 

• Rates Below 3%: 22% (down from 24.7% in 2022)

Ralph’s Take

…

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How Mortgage Rate Changes Affect Your Purchasing Power

Visual of the Week 

How Mortgage Rate Changes Affect Your Purchasing Power

It’s important to know how mortgage rates can affect your monthly payment. Because even a slight change in rates can have a big impact. Overall, rates have been trending down lately. So, this could be your chance to make your move a reality. Send me a message today if you want to talk about starting your search.

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Mortgage Applications Soared Last Week - Or Did They?

Visual of the Week

Mortgage Applications Soared Last Week - Or Did They? ????

Many news outlets are emphasizing a 'mortgage application surge,' but the true situation is more nuanced. Mortgage purchase applications are down 8% from last year and nearly 50% from pre-pandemic levels, reflecting weak homebuyer demand. Although the seasonally adjusted Purchase Index rose by 3.0% from the previous week, and the unadjusted Index increased by 2.0%, both still lag behind the same week in 2023 by 8.0%. Read More

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Where the Market Is Heading by Year-End

Where the Market Is Heading by Year-End

Realtor.com® 2024 Forecast Update predicts that home prices and inventory will end the year with gains. Inventory is expected to grow as sellers remain patient, waiting for buyers rather than delisting. Despite high mortgage rates, median home prices are forecasted to rise due to a resilient economy and limited supply. The mortgage lock-in effect is easing, contributing to the inventory increase, while mortgage rates are expected to decrease slightly, potentially boosting homebuyer activity in the latter half of the year.

Additional Projected Points:

• Lower Rates Finally Arrive: Mortgage rates to average 6.3% by end of the year

• Home Sale Prices Continue to Climb:…

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Mortgage Rates Plunge to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

Mortgage Rates Plunge to Lowest Level in More Than a Year

Mortgage rates fell to 6.34% on Monday, the lowest since May 2023. Today, they’re at 6.54%, still showing a notable shift from last year’s peak of 8% in October and November, which significantly affected the housing market last year. The Mortgage Bankers Association’s (MBA) Weekly Applications Survey reports that mortgage application volume has now reached its highest level since January 2024. The Market Composite Index, reflecting mortgage loan application volume, increased by 6.9% on a seasonally adjusted basis from the previous week.

• The 10-year Treasury yield dipped to 3.76%, the lowest since June 2023.

• The 2-year Treasury yield slid to 3.88%, raising…

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