Fed Rates DOWN - Mortgage Rates UP??

Fed Rates DOWN - Mortgage Rates UP??

The day after the Fed trimmed short-term rates by 25 basis points, mortgage rates did the opposite of what many expected. The 30-year fixed rate, which had been on a steady decline since hitting 7.08% in May and dropping to 6.13% on Tuesday, suddenly reversed course climbing back up to 6.37% yesterday, reported by Mortgage News Daily. Even with the bump, rates are still hovering near their lowest levels of the year. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association:

• Mortgage rates have held steady or fallen for 10 weeks.

• Mortgage applications increased 6 of the last 7 weeks.

• Mortgage applications jumped 29.7% last week compared to the week prior.

• …

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Post-Pandemic Shift: Rates Now Drive Buyer Behavior

Post-Pandemic Shift: Rates Now Drive Buyer Behavior

In recent months, mortgage rates have slipped from 7.04% in January to around 6.30%, sparking renewed discussion about whether lower borrowing costs will unlock more demand. ResiClub’s 25-year analysis reveals wide swings in buyer sensitivity to mortgage rates, depending on the housing cycle. In some periods, demographics and credit standards mattered more. In others, rates barely moved the needle. But in the current post-pandemic cycle, mortgage rates have emerged as the dominant force shaping demand.

• Early 2000s (2000–2004): Falling rates fueled the housing bubble

• Housing bust (2005–2009): Demand collapsed despite lower rates

• …

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What the Mortgage Rate Drop Means for Homebuyers in Westchester County

What the Mortgage Rate Drop Means for Homebuyers in Westchester County

If the Fed cuts rates in September, it doesn’t guarantee mortgage rates will move lower. This is a conversation I’ve had with many of my clients. With a strong economy and low unemployment, mortgage rates may stay put. Yes, a Fed rate cut usually puts some downward pressure on borrowing costs, but it’s not guaranteed. Mortgage rates move more closely with bond yields, which are heavily influenced by inflation expectations and overall economic strength. If investors still see inflation risk or the labor market looks too strong, those yields (and mortgage rates) won’t budge much, even if the Fed is cutting.

We saw this last fall, and it could happen again.…

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Real Estate Heatwave: 9% Spike in Mortgage Applications

Real Estate Heatwave: 9% Spike in Mortgage Applications

Last week, I highlighted the recent dip in mortgage rates as we headed into the summer market. This week, the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) confirmed what we suspected: even a modest drop is already making waves (how’s that for a summer pun?). Their latest report shows purchase applications jumped 9% — putting them 25% higher than this time last year. Here are a few more key takeaways:

• The 30-year fixed rate dipped last week to 6.77%, the lowest in 3 months.

• Purchase applications increased to their highest level since 2/2023.

• Refinance applications rose 9% weekly and were up 56% YOY.

• Pending home sales hit…

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The Mortgage Rate Impact on the Summer Market

The Mortgage Rate Impact on the Summer Market

Mortgage rates are slowly trending downward at just the right time. As of this week, conforming loans sit at 6.75%, FHA loans at 6.27%, and jumbo loans at 6.85% — the lowest levels we’ve seen since early April. While these aren’t dramatic drops, they’re meaningful. Just a few months ago, rates hovered stubbornly above 7%. Now, as the summer buying season kicks into gear, buyers are starting to reengage. According to the Mortgage Bankers Association, mortgage applications ticked up 1.1% last week, early signs that buyers are taking notice.

• Purchase Applications Up: Up 10% week-over-week and 16% higher than 2024.

• Refinances Jump: Up 7% from the prior week…

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Tariffs, Rates, and What It Means for Spring Buyers

Tariffs, Rates, and What It Means for Spring Buyers

President Donald Trump's recent "Liberation Day" tariffs are expected to impact the U.S. housing market by increasing construction costs and influencing mortgage rates. Following the announcement, mortgage rates fell sharply, with the average 30-year fixed rate dropping 12 basis points to 6.63%—the lowest since October. This decline reflects a market shift as investors moved from equities into U.S. Treasury bonds, which typically guide mortgage rates. At the same time, the tariffs are projected to raise new housing costs, with the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) estimating a $9,200 increase per new single-family home due to higher prices on imported materials like lumber,…

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Reader Q&A: Westchester County Sellers

Reader Q&A: Westchester County Sellers

Is it worth making upgrades or should we sell “as-is”?

It all depends on your home’s condition and how it compares to the competition. I never recommend my sellers spend money on upgrades unless there’s a clear return on investment. Small cosmetic changes, like fresh paint, updated lighting, or minor kitchen and bathroom touch-ups, can add value. But major renovations don’t always pay off; I sold a home with a brand-new kitchen a few years ago — the buyers hated it and tore it out after closing. A pre-listing consultation can help determine which updates, if any, will boost your home's appeal and selling price.

We tried selling our home but didn’t like the offers. What should we do…

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Mortgage Rates Dip as The Spring Market Approaches

Mortgage Rates Dip as The Spring Market Approaches

Harbor Island Park, Mamaroneck

The U.S. housing market is experiencing a slight easing in mortgage rates, offering a glimmer of hope for prospective buyers as the spring selling season approaches. Today, the average 30-year fixed mortgage rate hit a new low for 2025, dropping to 6.70%. Additionally,

• Refinance activity hit its fastest pace since October 2024.

• Mortgage applications increased 9% week-over-week, up 2% from last year.

• Property tours are up 25% from the start of the year, according to Redfin.

Ralph’s Take

Mortgage rates have shown stability, a promising sign for both buyers and sellers as we head into the spring…

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NAR Chief Economist Forecasts 9% Bump in Home Sales

NAR Chief Economist Forecasts 9% Bump in Home Sales

At the National Association of Realtors® (NAR) NXT conference, Chief Economist Lawrence Yun projected a 9% increase in existing home sales for 2025, followed by a 13% rise in 2026. He also anticipates new home sales to grow by 11% in 2025 and 8% in 2026. Yun attributes these forecasts to expected stabilization of mortgage rates around 6%, ongoing job market growth, and an increase in housing inventory compared to the past five years. Additional points:

• Household equity at a record high

• Expect 6 to 8 interest rate cuts

• Mortgage rates to stabilize between 5.5% and 6.5%

Ralph’s Take

While Yun’s forecasts are optimistic, I hold a little…

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Could This “Magic Rate” Unlock the Market?

Could This “Magic Rate” Unlock the Market?

According to a recent analysis by John Burns Research and Consulting (JBREC), there may be a "magic" mortgage rate that could spark renewed activity in the housing market. For 12 consecutive years, mortgage rates remained below 5%, enabling many homeowners to lock in favorable terms. Currently, 86% of mortgage holders have rates under 6%. JBREC's survey suggests that the 5.5% mortgage rate represents the tipping point that could release the “ lock in effect ”. Additional findings:

• 72% of buyers would not accept a rate above 5.5%

• 22% of buyers would accept a rate higher than 6%

• 66% of consumers believe a “normal” rate is below 5.5%

• 88% of consumers believe…

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