Where the Market Is Heading by Year-End

The view from Sailhouse in Tarrytown

Realtor.com® 2024 Forecast Update predicts that home prices and inventory will end the year with gains. Inventory is expected to grow as sellers remain patient, waiting for buyers rather than delisting. Despite high mortgage rates, median home prices are forecasted to rise due to a resilient economy and limited supply. The mortgage lock-in effect is easing, contributing to the inventory increase, while mortgage rates are expected to decrease slightly, potentially boosting homebuyer activity in the latter half of the year.

Additional Projected Points:

  • Lower Rates Finally Arrive: Mortgage rates to average 6.3% by end of the year

  • Home Sale Prices Continue to Climb: Expected to rise by 4.6% this year

  • Mortgage Lock-In Effect is Easing: Inventory growth of 14.5%

  • Home Sales Rebound-ish: Small growth, increasing by 0.8%

Ralph’s Take

The most intriguing aspect of the forecast is the slight but downward revision in mortgage rate expectations. This suggests that the Federal Reserve's policies are starting to take effect, potentially opening the door for a rate cut. If this materializes, it could provide much-needed relief to buyers who have been sidelined by high borrowing costs, making homeownership more attainable. It’s also noticeable that the presidential election was not mentioned in the article, although history shows home sales may slow down a bit in November, but they usually bounce back quickly.


Posted by Ralph Ragette Jr on

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